Fiscal Year 2013-2015 Special Budget Meeting

HONORABLE MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL Subject: Proposed FY 13-15 Proposed Policy Budget Date: May 13,2013 Page 31 Attached to this memo is a table depicting 7-year revenue projections vs. actuals (Attachment J). Please note that staff is unable to locate the explanation notes on the variance for FY 2006-07. From a review of the table, the major differences were in Property Tax ($10.88 million or 11.51% variance). Real Estate Transfer Tax ($19.22 million or 31.98% variance); and Fund Transfers ($33.71 million or 167.46% variance). The City's standard practice is to update the projections on a quarterly basis through the Revenue and Expenditure report that is presented to the City Council on a quarterly basis. Please note that the attached document only shows the revenue figures in the adopted budget vs. actual realization, quarterly revisions are not reflected. 2) Economic Factors and how are they projected throughout the 2 year budget and the 5 year plan? Example. Such as real estate property transfer growth at 5.2% per month 2012 over 2011? Did this get factored in to the revenue forecasts and if so what is the year by year projected expectations for the transfer tax growth rate? The following Table provides the growth rates for tax revenues over the 5-Year plan. All economic data available through the second quarter of the 2012-13 fiscal year has been incorporated into this forecast. The forecast is inherently an estimate and thus is subject to revision as new econoniic data become available. FY 2012-13 to FY 2013-14 to FY 2014-15 to FY 2015-16 to FY 2016-17 to Revenue Type FY 2013-14 FY 2014-15 FY 2015-16 FY 2016-17 FY 2017-18 GroMth Rate Growth Rate Growth Rate Growth Rate Growth Rate Property Tax 3.4% 4% 2% 4% 5% Sales Tax 0%' 3% 4% 4% 4% Business License Tax 7.3% 3% 3% 4% 4% Utility Consumption Tax 1.8% 0% 0% 0% 0% Real Estate Transfer Tax -1.6%* 3% 4% 4% 4% Transient Occupancy Tax 6.9% 2% 3% 3% 3% Parking Tax 5.3% 2% 3% 3% 3% *0 or negative growth is due to the recognition of non-recurring revenues in FY 2012-13 known as of the 2"^ Quarter. Note: FY 12-13 figures reflect the 2°^ Quarter Revenue & Expenditure Report. 3) Revenues were revised upward for both FYs 13/14 and 14/15 yet they still lag our rate of expenditure growth. Will any of the revenue adjustments in the current FY 13/14 budget continue and are they already in the FY 14/15 budget projections?